Most people come to the currency market looking for a forecast. They want to know where EURUSD will be in three months, whether the dollar is finished, what the next central bank meeting will deliver. It is a reasonable instinct and it produces reliably poor results, because it asks the market a question it is not obliged to answer. After nine years of running a live FX and precious metals strategy, I have come to think the more useful question is a different one. Not "where

There is a comfortable myth in trading that the winners are the ones who see the future most clearly. The best forecaster takes the most money. It is an appealing idea because it flatters the part of us that wants to be right. After nearly a decade of trading FX and precious metals, I have come to believe it is largely false. The traders who last are not the ones who predict best. They are the ones who behave best when the prediction fails. Prediction is overrated, and everyo

By Simon Cotterill, Founder & Lead Portfolio Manager, Vadantia Machine learning has become one of the most over-promised ideas in markets. It is described, often by people selling something, as a way to predict prices, remove human error, or turn uncertainty into a solved problem. None of that is true, and pretending otherwise tends to end badly. It is also genuinely useful — when you are honest about where its usefulness begins and ends. At Vadantia, machine learning sits in